3A Playoff Scenarios

3A PLAYOFF SCENARIOS HEADING INTO WEEK 10:

Good evening Sofies, your prognosticating pal Murray here.  It seems like just a couple days ago we were praying that football season would hurry and get here, and in a blink of an eye, we are heading into week 10 looking at playoff scenarios.  The season has gone by quicker than Commish’s first bottle of scotch on November 1st, (IYKYK).  Anyway, let’s get into it as I break down each District in 3A and each team’s chances of making the playoffs.

3A-1:

One of the biggest surprises in 3A this year was the Perkins-Trying vs Metro Christian game.  With the upset, Perkins locked up this district and remains unbeaten in district play going into week 10, while Metro Christian has to settle for the #2 spot.  The remaining two playoff spots are a little fuzzier, but if week 10 plays out like it should, then Kingfisher will finish 3rd, with North Rock Creek in 4th.  People may be asking, how can this happen when NRC just beat Kingfisher last week, well, sit back and let me finish.  Currently, NRC is sitting at 4-2 and alone in 3rd, but have a tough road trip to Metro Christian in week 10.  Kingfisher and McLoud are tied for 4th with a 3-3 record while having winnable games this week.  What should happen this week is that Kingfisher beats Anadarko, Metro beats NRC and McLoud “should” beat Mountain St Mary.  This will leave three teams tied at 4-3 and with all ties being determined by MPts (margin of victory points), which would allow Kingfisher tofinish third, NRC fourth, and McLoud on the outside looking in.  Currently, NRC has 27, Kingfisher 25 & McLoud -23 MPts.  As long as NRC loses by at least 2 points and Kingfisher wins by at least 1, Kingfisher will move to 3rd in the district and give NRC the 4th spot.  McLoud has no chance to be in it as long as Kingfisher wins.

MURRAY’S FINAL STANDINGS:

1. Perkins-Trying

2. Metro Christian

3. Kingfisher

4. North Rock Creek

3A-2:  

If you remember this time last year, I told you that District 3A-2 was not very good outside of Heritage Hall and that 3A-1 would win three of the four first round matchups in the playoffs.  If you also remember, I was correct.  Well, what a difference a year makes.  District 2 is easily the toughest district in 3A, as a matter of fact, they have a legitimate shot at winning four games in the first round this year.  They have FIVE teams in the top 10 which means, unfortunately for them, a very good team is going to miss the playoffs this year.  The top three teams are pretty much locked in as long as there are no upsets.  As per usual, Heritage Hall is in the one hole, Sulphur second & Marlow third.  There is currently a 3-way tie for 4th as Plainview, Pauls Valley & Lone Grove all sit at 3-3.  This week, Plainview travelsto 2-seed Sulphur which should be a loss, while Pauls Valley and Lone Grove face off with the winner most likely claiming the 4thplayoff spot.

MURRAY’S FINAL STANDINGS:

1. Heritage Hall

2. Sulphur

3. Marlow

4. Lone Grove (60%) or Pauls Valley (40%)

Even though I know the interest for the teams East of I-35 is minimal, I will go ahead and BRIEFLY let you know howDistricts 3 & 4 will shake out.

3A-3

No surprise here, Lincoln Christian has this one wrapped up followed by Berryhill, Checotah and most likely Stigler.  Stigler is in a 3-way tie for the fourth spot, but those three teams (Stigler, Locust Grove & Seminole) play the top three teams in the district so I don’t feel anything will change from where they are currently sitting.

MURRAY’S FINAL STANDINGS:

1. Lincoln Christian

2. Berryhill

3. Checotah

4. Stigler

3A-4

This District is also pretty much set.  Holland Hall and Cascia Hall are both 6-1 and sit atop the district, but Holland Hall has 40 more MPts than Cascia, so it pretty much wraps it up for them.  Verdigris sits alone in third, while Bristow and Central are tied for fourth.  This will be decided on Friday night as Bristow plays at Central which will give the winner the 4th spot.  

MURRAY’S FINAL STANDINGS:

1. Holland Hall

2. Cascia Hall

3. Verdigris

4. Bristow

There you have it folks, another mostly perfect prognostication for how the four districts in Oklahoma’s Class 3A will play out.  Below you will see a list of my projected first round matchups.  Look for my Playoff Projections article coming next week.

D2-4 Lone Grove @ D1-1 Perkins-Tryon

D3-3 Stigler @ D4-2 Cascia Hall

D4-4 Bristow @ D3-1 Lincoln Christian

D1-3 Kingfisher @ D2-2 Sulphur

D1-4 North Rock Creek @ D2-1 Heritage Hall

D4-3 Verdigris @ D3-2 Berryhill

D3-4 Checotah @ D4-1 Holland Hall

D2-3 Marlow @ D1-2 Metro Christian